Weather service provides hydrological outlook

The National Weather Service of Northern Indiana covers the region of northwest Ohio, northern Indiana and southeast Michigan. It reported precipitation totals in October and November were well below normal amounts. However, December saw a higher amount, with January into March bringing in 150%-200% more precipitation totals over the average.

As a result, the fall and winter seasons’ precipitation has seen a balance of totals to normal.

Of concern is that recent heavy rain and snow has saturated soils in the area, and precipitation amounts over the past 10 days brought totals to 200%-400% of normal levels.

The service reported soil at 20 centimeters of depth are extremely wet, and it is likely only drops in temperature will have the longevity to produce deeply-frozen soils going into spring.

An extended forecast looking at March 15-21 indicates below-normal temperatures, but also below-normal precipitation. An outlook through the end of March suggests near-normal precipitation for the month overall, and predictions going even further suggest a warmer and wetter April and May as compared to normal.

“The flood risk is considered to be normal for both the Maumee and upper Wabash River basins,” reads the National Weather Service of Northern Indiana’s hydrological outlook. “This means minor spring flooding is expected and moderate flooding is possible.”

The report highlights the Tiffin River near Stryker and the upper reaches of the St. Joseph river at Montpelier as the most likely locations to have at least minor flooding in the area.

The service’s hydrological update also includes the probabilities rivers at a certain point will surpass flooding stages.

The Tiffin River near Stryker has a minor flooding stage of 11 feet, and the updated report shows there is a 90% chance of it surpassing 11.2 feet. This extends into a 75% chance it will surpass 12.4 feet, a 50% chance of 13.5 feet, a 25% of 14.6 feet, a 10% chance of 15.6 feet and a 5% chance of 17.2 feet.

The St. Joseph River near Montpelier has a minor flooding stage of 12 feet, and the updated report shows a 50% chance of surpassing 12.1 feet. There is then a 25% chance of surpassing 13.1 feet, a 10% chance of 14.5 feet and a 5% chance of 15.2 feet.

The National Weather Service’s data for these river points remain projecting downward as of Sunday afternoon.

The two Williams County points observed by the National Weather Service still remain within flooding categories.

The Tiffin River near Stryker was observed at 11.55 feet as of noon Sunday, which keeps it in the minor flooding category (11-15 feet). However, this level is a decrease from the 13.81 feet recorded March 2, and projections have this point of the river dropping into the action/caution category (9-11 feet) by tomorrow.

The National Weather Service reports at 11 feet, this stage of the river sees flooding in lowland areas around Stryker, and at 12 feet portions of State Route 66 flood north of Archbold.

The St. Joseph River at Montpelier was able to drop out of the minor flooding category (12-13 feet) before the weekend, but it remains in the action/caution category (9-12 feet) with a measurement of 10.03 feet at noon Sunday. This stage of the river is also anticipated to continue falling, with it projected to drop out of the action category by Wednesday.

This stage of the river sees flooding of low land and agricultural land near the river at approximately 12 feet.

The National Weather Service of Northern Indiana’s forecast for the City of Bryan includes a 50% chance of snow today, but then chances of precipitation transition to rain later this week. This includes a 30% chance of rain Thursday and an 80% chance Friday. High temperatures are forecast to reach 43 degrees Wednesday and 52 degrees both Thursday and Friday, before dropping back to 34 degrees Saturday.